NOAA Experts Predict Above-Normal 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season

During a press conference Thursday, NOAA National Weather Service forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center predicted an above-normal hurricane year in the Atlantic basin this year. They predicted that during the season, June 1 to November 30, that there is an 85% chance of an above-normal season, a 10% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of a below-normal season. If you are keeping score, last year they over-estimated storms and it was more of an average year, wonder what will happen this year?

NOAA is forecasting a range of 17 to 25 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 8 to 13 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including four to seven major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). Forecasters have a 70% confidence in these ranges.

But why do the weather experts feel it will be a busier-than-normal year?

There is a confluence of factors, including near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic, development of La Nina conditions in the Pacific, reduced Atlantic trade winds and less wind shear, all of which tend to favor tropical storm formation, according to NOAA forecasters.

“With another active hurricane season approaching, NOAA’s commitment to keeping every American informed with life-saving information is unwavering,” said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad, Ph.D. “AI-enabled language translations and a new depiction of inland wind threats in the forecast cone are just two examples of the proactive steps our agency is taking to meet our mission of saving lives and protecting property.”

"Severe weather and emergencies can happen at any moment, which is why individuals and communities need to be prepared today," said FEMA Deputy Administrator Erik A. Hooks. "Already, we are seeing storms move across the country that can bring additional hazards like tornadoes, flooding and hail. Taking a proactive approach to our increasingly challenging climate landscape today can make a difference in how people can recover tomorrow."

But what happened to El Nino that brought so much moisture to the West? As one of the strongest El Ninos ever observed nears its end, NOAA scientists predict a quick transition to a La Nina pattern—which typically is conductive to Atlantic hurricane activity.

La Nina tends to lessen wind shear in the tropics. At the same time, abundant oceanic heat content in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea creates more energy to fuel storm development. 

This hurricane season also features the potential for an above-normal west African monsoon, which can produce African easterly waves that seed some of the strongest and longer-lived Atlantic storms. Finally, light trade winds allow hurricanes to grow in strength without the disruption of strong wind shear, and also minimize ocean cooling.

With that said, what are the storm names going to be? Is your name one of them. See the photo below! Did you make the list?

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